FK Tukums 2000 0-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
50%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
29%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
49%
Away Win
46%
+3.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 50%
+14% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.16/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.12
+14% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
16.7 Crosses 19.2
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Tukums 2000
1W-2D-3L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 1.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
307 Passes 263
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.06.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 0-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
30.04.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.03.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
21.09.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
03.07.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
12.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Tukums 2000
0-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
0.46 xG 1.85
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 26
0 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 2
188 Passes 414
63% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 21
3 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils nicked a narrow win over FK Tukums 2000 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FK Tukums 2000 had 38% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 62%, shots finished 6-26, expected goals 0.46 to 1.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold BFC Daugavpils's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for FK Tukums 2000 and 1.67 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils?

FK Tukums 2000 0-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated an BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split FK Tukums 2000 25%, draw 25%, BFC Daugavpils 49%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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