Aston Villa 3-1 Wolverhampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.96
6+ Goals
12%
8.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.85
X/1
16%
4.0
X/2
9%
10.5
X/X
9%
5.87
2/1
7%
21.2
2/2
8%
7.64
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 22%
+11% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
2.24/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.39
+27% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
16.8 Crosses 15.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Wolverhampton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.52 xG 1.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
362 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
30.03.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-0 HT 1-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
08.10.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 1-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
06.05.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
04.01.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 0-1 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
02.04.2022 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 2-1 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
16.10.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-3 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
3-1
AWAY Wolverhampton
1.73 xG 0.51
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
393 Passes 341
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
33 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa beat Wolverhampton 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aston Villa had 53% of the ball to Wolverhampton's 47%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.73 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolverhampton led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aston Villa and 1.33 for Wolverhampton.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton?

Aston Villa 3-1 Wolverhampton in the England - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 54%, draw 24%, Wolverhampton 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
21 Sep 2024
14:30 West Ham United vs Chelsea Analysis →
17:00 Leicester City vs Everton Analysis →
17:00 Fulham vs Newcastle United Analysis →
17:00 Liverpool vs Bournemouth Analysis →
17:00 Southampton vs Ipswich Town Analysis →
17:00 Tottenham vs Brentford Analysis →