Fulham 3-1 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

Fulham
3-1 HT 2-0
Newcastle United
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Fulham vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 24% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.99
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.1
X/1
12%
6.33
X/2
7%
5.51
X/X
12%
4.95
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
28%
3.26
2/X
8%
12.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fulham v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.43/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.46
+9% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 77%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
23.5 Crosses 14.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Fulham vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Newcastle United
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.85 xG 2.18
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
339 Passes 401
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 31
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Fulham Fulham 0-1 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
16.12.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-0 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
15.01.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
01.10.2022 Fulham Fulham 1-4 HT 0-3 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
23.05.2021 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.12.2020 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1 HT 0-1 Fulham Fulham İNP

Fulham 3-1 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
3-1
AWAY Newcastle United
2.29 xG 1.54
39% Ball Possession 61%
22 Total Shots 16
11 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
283 Passes 506
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
39 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 12
6 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fulham got the better of Newcastle United 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fulham had 39% of the ball to Newcastle United's 61%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 2.29 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Fulham and 2.00 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Newcastle United?

Fulham 3-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fulham 33%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
21 Sep 2024
14:30 West Ham United vs Chelsea Analysis →
17:00 Leicester City vs Everton Analysis →
17:00 Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Analysis →
17:00 Liverpool vs Bournemouth Analysis →
17:00 Southampton vs Ipswich Town Analysis →
17:00 Tottenham vs Brentford Analysis →