Lazio vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities
Lazio v Roma — Team-Based Signals
Lazio vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Lazio 0-1 Roma — Actual Match Statistics
Roma edged past Lazio 1-0 away from home.
From a near-even 34% / 29% / 37% read, it was Roma who turned the coin-flip their way.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 52% for over 2.5, 51% on both teams scoring. At 1.62 (~62%), the under-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
The match data tells the story: Roma saw more of the ball, 51% to 49%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.97 to 1.16.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.50 a game for Lazio against 0.67 for Roma.
Lazio vs Roma Result & Final Score
Lazio 0-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Lazio vs Roma Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lazio 34%, draw 29%, Roma 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.