Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
71%
1.43
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
10%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.9
Over
51%
1.85
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.07
No
54%
1.67
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.19
2-3
47%
1.75
4-5
23%
3.4
6+
5%
13.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1.71
1/2
1%
34.5
1/X
4%
17.8
X/1
22%
3.72
X/2
5%
14.15
X/X
12%
5.65
2/1
3%
24.1
2/2
4%
12.75
2/X
3%
20.8
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Palmeiras The Market 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza The Market 16%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
2.04 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.76
0.60 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 2.10
Average Attack Strength Strong
Average Defense Strength Average
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
432 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
27 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.39
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
358 Passes 248
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.04.2025 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-2 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
26.10.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
27.06.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
27.11.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
22.07.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
01.06.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
4 - 1
AWAY Fortaleza
2.30 xG 1.06
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 2
399 Passes 166
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
31 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Palmeiras vs Fortaleza
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Palmeiras overpowered Fortaleza 4-1. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart. With 5 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 46%, coin-flips both.

The match data tells the story: possession split 66% to 34% in Palmeiras's favour, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.30 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Palmeiras against 1.67 for Fortaleza.

Palmeiras vs Fortaleza Result & Final Score

Palmeiras 4 - 1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Palmeiras vs Fortaleza Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 71%, draw 19%, Fortaleza 10%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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