Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0 Tallinna Kalev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
69%
-6.5pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.6pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+2.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.6pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / -1%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -19%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2025 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-2 HT 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
14.06.2025 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-3 HT 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
13.04.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2 HT 1-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
03.11.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-0 HT 2-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
01.09.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.06.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
1-0
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus nicked a narrow win over Tallinna Kalev 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Parnu JK Vaprus as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 52% of the ball to Tallinna Kalev's 48%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 0.67 for Tallinna Kalev.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev?

Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0 Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia - Premium League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 62%, draw 22%, Tallinna Kalev 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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