Atletico Ottawa 1-1 Forge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.23
2-3 Goals
44%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Ottawa EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Forge EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +9%
1.52/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.32
-7% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +0%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
15.5 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Ottawa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Forge
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 1.43
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
448 Passes 328
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2025 Forge Forge 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
12.07.2025 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 1-1 HT 0-1 Forge Forge KAPL
13.05.2025 Forge Forge 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
02.11.2024 Forge Forge 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa CAPL
12.10.2024 Forge Forge 0-2 HT 0-2 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
11.08.2024 Forge Forge 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Ottawa
1-1
AWAY Forge
0.92 xG 1.65
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 5
512 Passes 305
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 33
5 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Ottawa vs Forge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Ottawa and Forge couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Ottawa had 60% of the ball to Forge's 40%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.92 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Ottawa and 1.50 for Forge.

What was the final score of Atletico Ottawa vs Forge?

Atletico Ottawa 1-1 Forge in the Kanada - Premier League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Ottawa vs Forge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Ottawa win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Atletico Ottawa 36%, draw 30%, Forge 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Ottawa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Ottawa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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