FS Jelgava 2-3 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
9%
9.57
Draw
16%
5.15
Away
75%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
3%
X/2
29%
X/X
6%
2/1
3%
2/2
37%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
9%
Home Win
8%
+1.8pp
16%
Draw
16%
-0.5pp
75%
Away Win
76%
-1.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 81%
+12% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
0.81/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.78/0.78
-8% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +37%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
269 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 82%
13.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 44.4
13.1 Crosses 28.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Riga FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.71 xG 2.83
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
212 Passes 488
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.07.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 3-0 HT 2-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
10.05.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
15.03.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
05.10.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-2 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
19.07.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 6-1 HT 4-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
19.05.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-5 HT 0-3 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
2-3
AWAY Riga FC
1.24 xG 1.84
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
271 Passes 465
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC squeezed past FS Jelgava 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 41% of the ball to Riga FC's 59%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.24 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FS Jelgava and 3.17 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Riga FC?

FS Jelgava 2-3 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 9%, draw 16%, Riga FC 75%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✓ Over 2.5
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