Monterey Bay 1-1 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.24
6+ Goals
9%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 32% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.49/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.28
+10% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.8 Crosses 12.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
2W-0D-4L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.84 xG 1.31
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
325 Passes 332
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.04.2025 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-0 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
18.08.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-2 HT 2-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.06.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
14.05.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
09.04.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 4-2 HT 2-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
21.08.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 2-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
1-1
AWAY New Mexico United
1.43 xG 1.90
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
277 Passes 479
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Monterey Bay and New Mexico United shared the points in a 1-1 draw in the USL Championship on 21 Sep 2025. Half-time: 0-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 45% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 39% of the ball to New Mexico United's 61%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.43 to 1.90.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United lead the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.67 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?

Monterey Bay 1-1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated an New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 36%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (New Mexico United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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