Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 FC Kuressaare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 21 Oct 2025

📅21/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 25%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +4%
2.69/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.32
+52% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +36%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
320 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Kuressaare
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-1 HT 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
01.06.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
18.04.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
06.10.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 HT 1-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
28.07.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.05.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-2 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0-1
AWAY FC Kuressaare
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Kuressaare edged past Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Parnu JK Vaprus at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 68% of the ball to FC Kuressaare's 32%, shots finished 14-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.33 for FC Kuressaare.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare?

Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 FC Kuressaare in the Estonia - Premium League on 21/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 53%, draw 24%, FC Kuressaare 23%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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