Leixoes U23 3-1 Rio Ave U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 21 Oct 2025

📅21/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
39%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
48%
-12.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
39%
Away Win
26%
+12.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes U23 EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave U23 EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -82% / +40%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes U23
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Rio Ave U23
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.03.2025 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 2-1 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 PORU23
11.02.2025 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 1-1 HT 1-1 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 PORU23
26.11.2024 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 0-1 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 UŞGA
28.08.2024 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 4-1 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 UŞGA
04.03.2024 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 3-2 HT 0-1 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 PORU23
16.01.2024 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 1-1 HT 0-1 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes U23
3-1
AWAY Rio Ave U23
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leixoes U23 vs Rio Ave U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes U23 got the better of Rio Ave U23 3-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; Leixoes U23 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Leixoes U23 had 60% of the ball to Rio Ave U23's 40%, shots finished 14-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave U23 led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leixoes U23 and 1.83 for Rio Ave U23.

What was the final score of Leixoes U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Leixoes U23 3-1 Rio Ave U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 21/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rio Ave U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Leixoes U23 36%, draw 25%, Rio Ave U23 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rio Ave U23), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rio Ave U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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