Sumqayıt 2-4 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
4.71
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
67%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
38%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
18%
-4.3pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.8pp
67%
Away Win
58%
+8.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 62%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
0.79/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.42/0.62
-18% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sumqayıt
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
22.08.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
04.05.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
03.03.2025 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-2 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
16.12.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 5-0 HT 3-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
06.10.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
25.02.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ got the better of Sumqayıt 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Sumqayıt and 2.00 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs Karabağ?

Sumqayıt 2-4 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 14%, draw 19%, Karabağ 67%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
21 Nov 2025
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