Dinamo Tbilisi 2-4 Gagra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.49
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
15%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.86
Over 2.5
56%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
14%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
63%
+2.1pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.7pp
15%
Away Win
15%
+0.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
50%
-6.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
50%
+6.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Tbilisi EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Gagra EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.87/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.72
-7% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Tbilisi
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gagra
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2025 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 HT 0-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
16.05.2025 Gagra Gagra 1-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GUR
05.04.2025 Gagra Gagra 0-4 HT 0-2 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GUR
08.12.2024 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 HT 0-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
01.10.2024 Gagra Gagra 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GUR
01.06.2024 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 2-0 HT 0-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Tbilisi
2-4
AWAY Gagra
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gagra got the better of Dinamo Tbilisi 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dinamo Tbilisi at 65% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Dinamo Tbilisi had 60% of the ball to Gagra's 40%, shots finished 23-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.50 for Gagra.

What was the final score of Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra?

Dinamo Tbilisi 2-4 Gagra in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Tbilisi win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Tbilisi 65%, draw 20%, Gagra 15%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dinamo Tbilisi) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Tbilisi) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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