De Graafschap 3-1 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.82
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
22%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.51
Over 2.5
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.4
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
28%
2.55
6+ Goals
15%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.43
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
22%
4.98
X/2
5%
8.4
X/X
10%
6.37
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
19.85
2/2
11%
5.4
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 15% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
50%
+6.1pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.3pp
22%
Away Win
26%
-3.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+1.7pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-1.7pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.8pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -34%
1.71/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.53
-9% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
23.3 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
378 Passes 284
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2025 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-4 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
13.09.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-3 HT 0-2 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
16.02.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
18.09.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
06.03.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.11.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-2 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-1
AWAY Helmond Sport
3.61 xG 1.90
48% Ball Possession 52%
21 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 12
339 Passes 344
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
39 Box Touches 30
22 Crosses 26
FAQ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport
Match summary & frequently asked questions

De Graafschap beat Helmond Sport 3-1 in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21 Nov 2025. Half-time: 1-0.

The goals market leaned clearly over 2.5, at 62% and both teams to score was favoured at 60%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 48% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 52%, shots finished 21-16, expected goals 3.61 to 1.90.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap have the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for De Graafschap and 1.33 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?

De Graafschap 3-1 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 57%, draw 21%, Helmond Sport 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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