Nice 2-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 21 Dec 2025

Nice
2-1 HT 1-1
Saint-Etienne
📅21/12/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
France - Cup – 2025/2026

Nice vs Saint-Etienne Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
39%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.33
Over 2.5
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.76
6+ Goals
11%
7.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.84
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
16%
5.33
X/2
13%
7.3
X/X
8%
5.69
2/1
7%
21.8
2/2
17%
4.63
2/X
6%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.2pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+9.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.7pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nice v Saint-Etienne — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nice EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 33%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.04/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.12
-97% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
32.4 Crosses –
2.1 Yellow Cards –

Nice vs Saint-Etienne Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nice
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.19 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
403 Passes 402
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.03.2025 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-3 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
20.09.2024 Nice Nice 8-0 HT 6-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
11.05.2022 Nice Nice 4-2 HT 0-2 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
25.09.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-3 HT 0-1 Nice Nice FR1
31.01.2021 Nice Nice 0-1 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
18.10.2020 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-3 HT 0-2 Nice Nice FR1

Nice 2-1 Saint-Etienne — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nice
2-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.29 xG 2.00
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 0
325 Passes 658
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nice vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice edged past Saint-Etienne 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (41% / 21% / 39%) promised a tight game; Nice found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nice had 36% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 64%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.29 to 2.00 — on chances, Saint-Etienne could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Nice and 0.83 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Nice vs Saint-Etienne?

Nice 2-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Cup on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nice vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nice 41%, draw 21%, Saint-Etienne 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nice), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nice) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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