Auxerre 1-2 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
62%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.75
No
43%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.77
6+ Goals
9%
7.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
11.4
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
20.4
1/X
7%
20.0
X/1
7%
14.3
X/2
24%
4.03
X/X
8%
7.26
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
30%
1.69
2/X
5%
17.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.4 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
14%
+3.3pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.9pp
62%
Away Win
66%
-4.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.6pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 70%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.47/2.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.57/1.86
-99% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +50%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.6
25.0 Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Monaco
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.14 xG 2.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
306 Passes 435
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2025 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
01.02.2025 Monaco Monaco 4-2 HT 1-2 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
14.09.2024 Auxerre Auxerre 0-3 HT 0-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
01.02.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-2 HT 2-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
28.12.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 2-3 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
13.04.2013 Auxerre Auxerre 0-2 HT 0-2 Monaco Monaco FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1-2
AWAY Monaco
1.55 xG 3.71
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 5
286 Passes 472
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco nicked a narrow win over Auxerre 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Auxerre had 40% of the ball to Monaco's 60%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 1.55 to 3.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monaco's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Auxerre and 2.83 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Monaco?

Auxerre 1-2 Monaco in the France - Cup on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 17%, draw 20%, Monaco 62%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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