Slovan Bratislava 0-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 22 Feb 2024

📅22/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.46
2-3 Goals
43%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.21
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
14%
5.4
X/2
12%
6.19
X/X
12%
5.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
2/2
19%
3.88
2/X
8%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.7pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slovan Bratislava EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+69% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.0 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slovan Bratislava
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.93 xG 2.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
268 Passes 346
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 38
8 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-1 HT 2-1 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slovan Bratislava
0-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.47 xG 1.31
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
294 Passes 231
69% Pass Accuracy 65%
34 Box Touches 19
33 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Slovan Bratislava vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past Slovan Bratislava 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Sturm Graz made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Slovan Bratislava had 55% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 45%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.47 to 1.31.

What was the final score of Slovan Bratislava vs Sturm Graz?

Slovan Bratislava 0-1 Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 22/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slovan Bratislava vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Slovan Bratislava 36%, draw 27%, Sturm Graz 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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