Weymouth 4-1 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.38
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.11
2-3 Goals
46%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.4
6+ Goals
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
38%
-6.4pp
33%
Draw
26%
+6.8pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Weymouth EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 39%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +12%
1.55/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.32
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Weymouth
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Aveley
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2024 Aveley Aveley 0-1 HT 0-1 Weymouth Weymouth İCON
09.03.2024 Aveley Aveley 0-2 HT 0-0 Weymouth Weymouth İCON
25.11.2023 Weymouth Weymouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Aveley Aveley İCON
POST-MATCH Weymouth vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weymouth cruised past Aveley 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 33% / 35% — and on the day Weymouth made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Weymouth had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Weymouth and 0.33 for Aveley.

What was the final score of Weymouth vs Aveley?

Weymouth 4-1 Aveley in the England - Conference on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Weymouth vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aveley win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Weymouth 32%, draw 33%, Aveley 35%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aveley), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aveley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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