Atletico Nacional 3-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 22 Feb 2026

📅22/02/2026 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.33
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
12%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
70%
-1.7pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.2pp
12%
Away Win
11%
+1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.3pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.70/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.29
+21% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 77%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.2
18.8 Crosses 12.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.14 xG 1.01
57% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
360 Passes 243
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.08.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
24.02.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
20.09.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOLK
17.09.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
18.07.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
22.01.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
3-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
278 Passes 284
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional ran out comfortable winners over Alianza Petrolera 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 48% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 52%, shots finished 13-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Atletico Nacional 3-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 69%, draw 19%, Alianza Petrolera 12%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
22 Feb 2026
00:10 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Cali Analysis →
04:30 La Equidad vs Millonarios Analysis →