Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.6
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.18
6+ Goals
11%
21.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+5.4pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.6pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.51/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.34
+24% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.5 Crosses 18.6
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.81 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
303 Passes 295
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
05.10.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-3 HT 2-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.05.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
18.08.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.04.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
04.02.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRSC
26.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 5-0 HT 3-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
0-1
AWAY Palmeiras
0.05 xG 0.17
63% Ball Possession 37%
3 Total Shots 6
0 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
474 Passes 271
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 9
41 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Sao Paulo 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 63% of the ball to Palmeiras's 37%, shots finished 3-6, expected goals 0.05 to 0.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.83 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?

Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 42%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sao Paulo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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