Monterrey vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monterrey v Puebla — Team-Based Signals
Monterrey vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Monterrey
MEK
1-2
HT 1-0
Monterrey
MEK
Monterrey 2-1 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics
Monterrey edged past Puebla 2-1.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Monterrey had 44% of the ball to Puebla's 56%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.57 to 1.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monterrey's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Monterrey and 1.00 for Puebla.
What was the final score of Monterrey vs Puebla?
Monterrey 2-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 22/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Puebla?
Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 58%, draw 21%, Puebla 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.