Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 22 May 2026

📅22/05/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.45
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
13%
9.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
4%
16.7
X/1
24%
3.87
X/2
6%
12.95
X/X
10%
6.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.8
2/2
6%
10.85
2/X
6%
19.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
65%
-1.7pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.3pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.5pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shelbourne EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 18%
-13% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +1%
1.72/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.84
-13% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
22.8 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shelbourne
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Waterford FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.76 xG 1.10
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
439 Passes 188
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
30 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.02.2026 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
26.09.2025 Shelbourne Shelbourne 2-1 HT 1-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
23.06.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
05.05.2025 Shelbourne Shelbourne 0-1 HT 0-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
21.02.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
18.10.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 3-1 HT 1-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shelbourne
2-1
AWAY Waterford FC
2.56 xG 0.27
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
420 Passes 130
81% Pass Accuracy 55%
34 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shelbourne vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shelbourne edged past Waterford FC 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shelbourne as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Shelbourne had 68% of the ball to Waterford FC's 32%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.56 to 0.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Shelbourne's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shelbourne had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Shelbourne and 1.00 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Shelbourne vs Waterford FC?

Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 22/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shelbourne vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shelbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Shelbourne 63%, draw 19%, Waterford FC 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shelbourne), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shelbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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