Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.9
Over 2.5
56%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
12%
12.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.81
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
17.3
X/1
17%
3.79
X/2
5%
12.75
X/X
8%
5.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.4
2/2
10%
11.25
2/X
7%
19.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
64%
-2.1pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.5pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shelbourne EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +23%
1.69/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.70
-19% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
23.0 Crosses 13.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shelbourne
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Waterford FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.50 xG 1.01
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
430 Passes 225
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.06.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
05.05.2025 Shelbourne Shelbourne 0-1 HT 0-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
21.02.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
18.10.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 3-1 HT 1-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
13.06.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
17.05.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shelbourne
2-1
AWAY Waterford FC
2.19 xG 1.17
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
406 Passes 171
81% Pass Accuracy 62%
26 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Shelbourne vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shelbourne nicked a narrow win over Waterford FC 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shelbourne as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Shelbourne had 64% of the ball to Waterford FC's 36%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.19 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shelbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Shelbourne and 0.67 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Shelbourne vs Waterford FC?

Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shelbourne vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shelbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Shelbourne 62%, draw 19%, Waterford FC 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shelbourne), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shelbourne) ✓ Over 2.5
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