Kerry 1-0 Longford Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 22 Aug 2025

📅22/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
2.02
Draw
17%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.78
Over 2.5
59%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.81
No
43%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.7
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.6
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.6 — our 29% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
46%
+7.0pp
17%
Draw
27%
-9.7pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
52%
-11.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
48%
+11.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.8pp
43%
BTTS No
49%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kerry EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Longford Town EU Bookmakers 31%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -27%
1.48/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.79
-2% / +113% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kerry
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Longford Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.07.2025 Longford Town Longford Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Kerry İR1
30.05.2025 Kerry 2-0 HT 1-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
15.03.2025 Longford Town Longford Town 3-2 HT 1-2 Kerry İR1
24.08.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-2 HT 1-1 Kerry İR1
13.06.2024 Kerry 2-1 HT 1-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
06.05.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Kerry İR1
POST-MATCH Kerry vs Longford Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kerry nicked a narrow win over Longford Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kerry as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Longford Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kerry and 1.83 for Longford Town.

What was the final score of Kerry vs Longford Town?

Kerry 1-0 Longford Town in the Ireland - 1st Division on 22/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kerry vs Longford Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kerry win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Kerry 53%, draw 17%, Longford Town 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kerry) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kerry) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İR1 More Ireland - 1st Division
22 Aug 2025
00:00 Treaty United vs Dundalk Analysis →
21:45 Finn Harps vs Athlone Town Analysis →
21:45 Wexford Youths vs Bray Wanderers Analysis →
21:45 Cobh Ramblers vs Univ College Dublin Analysis →