Deportivo Cuenca 5-0 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 22 Nov 2025

📅22/11/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-3.7pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +28%
1.62/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.49
+16% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.3 Crosses 13.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
4W-0D-2L
AWAY El Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.41 xG 1.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
257 Passes 302
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
15.06.2025 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 4-1 HT 2-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
16.02.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
31.08.2024 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-2 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
24.03.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
26.11.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
5-0
AWAY El Nacional
3.09 xG 0.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
259 Passes 343
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 7
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Cuenca vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Cuenca cruised past El Nacional 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Deportivo Cuenca as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Deportivo Cuenca had 46% of the ball to El Nacional's 54%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 3.09 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Cuenca had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Deportivo Cuenca and 0.83 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportivo Cuenca vs El Nacional?

Deportivo Cuenca 5-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Cuenca vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Cuenca win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Cuenca 55%, draw 21%, El Nacional 24%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Cuenca) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Cuenca) ✗ Under 2.5
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