Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 22 Nov 2025

📅22/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.34
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
13%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.94
6+ Goals
11%
9.07
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 28% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
70%
-2.7pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.2pp
13%
Away Win
12%
+1.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.81/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.31
+18% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +38%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
20.8 Crosses 12.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4W-2D-0L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.55 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
340 Passes 276
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
25.05.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.03.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
22.12.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
06.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
27.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
3-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
2.01 xG 0.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
447 Passes 416
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb saw off NK Varazdin 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 51% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 49%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 2.01 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.83 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 67%, draw 20%, NK Varazdin 13%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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