NK Varazdin 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
5.91
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
66%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.13
No
51%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 28% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
15%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
33%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
14%
-0.4pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.1pp
66%
Away Win
66%
+0.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
43%
+6.0pp
51%
BTTS No
57%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 70%
+14% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -23%
0.98/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.77
+14% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -7%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
254 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
12.7 Crosses 20.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.85 xG 1.46
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
301 Passes 352
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.03.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
22.12.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
06.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
27.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
18.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
2-2
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.37 xG 2.18
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 10
225 Passes 365
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 23
5 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dinamo Zagreb at 66% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 41% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 59%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 0.37 to 2.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.33 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 13%, draw 21%, Dinamo Zagreb 66%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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