Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.25
Draw
25%
5.28
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.23
Over 2.5
46%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
9%
9.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 28% vs market 19.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
76%
-17.1pp
25%
Draw
16%
+8.8pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+13.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-13.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 11%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.79/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.31
+19% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +35%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 71%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
21.1 Crosses 12.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4W-2D-0L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.38 xG 0.90
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
356 Passes 287
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
22.12.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
06.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
27.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
18.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
1-0
AWAY NK Varazdin
2.25 xG 0.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
367 Passes 315
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb edged past NK Varazdin 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 52% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 48%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 2.25 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dinamo Zagreb's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.67 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 58%, draw 25%, NK Varazdin 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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