DC United 2-2 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Feb 2025

DC United
2-2 HT 2-1
Toronto FC
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

DC United vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.55
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.5
X/1
20%
4.48
X/2
10%
7.88
X/X
11%
4.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.85
2/2
15%
6.06
2/X
7%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

DC United v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.81/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.85
+4% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
20.4 Crosses 10.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

DC United vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Toronto FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.88 xG 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 Passes 334
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
01.09.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-3 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
02.06.2024 DC United DC United 2-2 HT 0-2 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
28.05.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-0 DC United DC United ABD
26.02.2023 DC United DC United 3-2 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
22.05.2022 DC United DC United 2-2 HT 1-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
19.03.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-1 DC United DC United ABD

DC United 2-2 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
2-2
AWAY Toronto FC
0.74 xG 2.06
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
392 Passes 330
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH DC United vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

DC United and Toronto FC couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was DC United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, DC United had 54% of the ball to Toronto FC's 46%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.74 to 2.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for DC United and 1.83 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of DC United vs Toronto FC?

DC United 2-2 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a DC United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split DC United 41%, draw 28%, Toronto FC 31%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (DC United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (DC United) ✓ BTTS Yes
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