Houston Dynamo 1-2 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.42
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 26% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.73
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
15%
4.84
X/2
9%
7.47
X/X
13%
4.84
2/1
8%
23.85
2/2
12%
5.36
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.58/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.41
-6% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 81%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.2 Crosses 12.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Houston Dynamo
0W-4D-2L
AWAY FC Dallas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.43 xG 1.41
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
442 Passes 330
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
28.04.2024 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-0 HT 0-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
01.10.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
21.05.2023 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-1 HT 0-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
10.07.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-2 HT 0-1 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
23.04.2022 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-1 HT 0-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Houston Dynamo
1-2
AWAY FC Dallas
1.25 xG 2.13
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
478 Passes 359
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 26
29 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Dallas edged past Houston Dynamo 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Houston Dynamo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Houston Dynamo had 56% of the ball to FC Dallas's 44%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.25 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Dallas led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.33 for FC Dallas.

What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas?

Houston Dynamo 1-2 FC Dallas in the USA - Major League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 45%, draw 28%, FC Dallas 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Houston Dynamo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Houston Dynamo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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