Phoenix Rising 2-2 Rhode Island — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.36
6+ Goals
9%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.3pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 45%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.74/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.20
-44% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 74%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
15.5 Crosses 16.8
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Rhode Island
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.51 xG 1.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 9
330 Passes 392
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 41
9 Crosses 34
4 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2024 Rhode Island Rhode Island 1-3 HT 0-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
2-2
AWAY Rhode Island
2.35 xG 2.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
244 Passes 283
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs Rhode Island
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising and Rhode Island shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 23% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 47% of the ball to Rhode Island's 53%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 2.35 to 2.36.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Rhode Island?

Phoenix Rising 2-2 Rhode Island in the USL Championship on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Rhode Island?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rhode Island win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 37%, draw 23%, Rhode Island 40%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Rhode Island) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rhode Island) ✓ Over 2.5
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