Independiente Del Valle 2-3 Libertad (Ekvador) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 23 May 2026

Independiente Del Valle
2 - 3 HT 0 - 0
Libertad (Ekvador)
📅23/05/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2026

Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad (Ekvador) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
79%
1.28
Draw
13%
5.24
Away
8%
7.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.2
Over
62%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.87
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
18%
2-3
42%
4-5
29%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
54%
1/2
1%
1/X
3%
X/1
22%
X/2
3%
X/X
7%
2/1
3%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Independiente Del Valle v Libertad (Ekvador) — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Independiente Del Valle The Market 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad (Ekvador) The Market 14%
Weak Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Great
2.60 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.82
0.66 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 2.14
Average Attack Strength Average
Strong Defense Strength Strong
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 72%
25 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2

Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad (Ekvador) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Libertad (Ekvador)
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.01
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
346 Passes 223
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.12.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-1 Libertad (Ekvador) Libertad (Ekvador) EKV1
04.11.2025 Libertad (Ekvador) Libertad (Ekvador) 1-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
14.06.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-0 Libertad (Ekvador) Libertad (Ekvador) EKV1
16.02.2025 Libertad (Ekvador) Libertad (Ekvador) 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
21.09.2024 Libertad (Ekvador) Libertad (Ekvador) 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad (Ekvador) Libertad (Ekvador) EKV1
REVIEW Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad (Ekvador)
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Libertad (Ekvador) squeezed past Independiente Del Valle 3-2 on the road. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half. With 5 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

This one beat our numbers. Independiente Del Valle carried 79% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (62%) came home.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.00 for Libertad (Ekvador).

Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad (Ekvador) Result & Final Score

Independiente Del Valle 2 - 3 Libertad (Ekvador) in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad (Ekvador) Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 79%, draw 13%, Libertad (Ekvador) 8%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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