Tobol 0-3 Ordabasy Shymkent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.91
Over 2.5
38%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
48%
+13.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
52%
-13.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 45%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +21%
1.78/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.68
+77% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
04.10.2025 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 0-2 HT 0-2 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
24.09.2025 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
17.08.2025 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 2-3 HT 0-3 Tobol Tobol KAZP
19.10.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
12.05.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
25.02.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZSK
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Ordabasy Shymkent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ordabasy Shymkent swept aside Tobol 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Ordabasy Shymkent found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tobol and 0.67 for Ordabasy Shymkent.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Tobol 0-3 Ordabasy Shymkent in the Kazakistan - Super League on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ordabasy Shymkent win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tobol 33%, draw 26%, Ordabasy Shymkent 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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