Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.29
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
12%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
11%
7.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 27% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.46
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
7%
21.35
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
3.74
X/2
4%
19.15
X/X
7%
7.93
2/1
6%
21.8
2/2
5%
16.55
2/X
6%
24.8
Value flag · X/1 at 3.74 — our 29% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
73%
-4.9pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.9pp
13%
Away Win
10%
+2.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -8%
1.88/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/2.03
-10% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.1 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.70 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
357 Passes 320
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2025 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-4 HT 0-3 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
01.03.2022 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
02.05.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POLK
26.06.2020 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-2 HT 2-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
22.02.2020 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 3-2 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
14.09.2019 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 HT 1-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
3-0
AWAY Arka Gdynia
0.52 xG 0.60
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
397 Passes 236
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 15
7 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa cruised past Arka Gdynia 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 60% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 40%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.52 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 1.17 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Arka Gdynia?

Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 68%, draw 20%, Arka Gdynia 13%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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