Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.06
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
30%
2.54
6+ Goals
12%
6.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.41
1/2
8%
23.1
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
16%
6.0
X/2
8%
6.06
X/X
9%
5.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.1
2/2
17%
3.45
2/X
9%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
39%
+5.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.4pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.6pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.82/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.48
-10% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
277 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 85%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
22.0 Crosses 15.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Katowice
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.92 xG 1.26
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
414 Passes 218
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
37 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.11.2025 Katowice Katowice 2-0 HT 2-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
25.06.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice HAZ
06.04.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-0 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL
27.09.2024 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
26.09.2018 Katowice Katowice 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-1
AWAY Katowice
1.00 xG 0.87
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
288 Passes 331
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin and Katowice couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 47% of the ball to Katowice's 53%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.00 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.20 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice?

Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 45%, draw 23%, Katowice 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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