Legia Varşova 4-0 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.58
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.65
6+ Goals
12%
6.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.8
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
15.65
X/1
21%
4.1
X/2
7%
11.9
X/X
11%
6.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.5
2/2
9%
9.06
2/X
6%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.7pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +0%
1.95/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.97
+10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
23.0 Crosses 19.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.88 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
373 Passes 286
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
10.03.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 3-3 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
01.09.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-2 HT 2-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
01.07.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-3 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin HAZ
01.12.2021 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-2 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
4-0
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.33 xG 0.54
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
394 Passes 258
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova cruised past Motor Lublin 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 57% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 43%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.33 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.60 goals for Legia Varşova and 2.00 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Motor Lublin?

Legia Varşova 4-0 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 56%, draw 23%, Motor Lublin 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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