Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.43
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.67
6+ Goals
12%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.7
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.45
X/1
17%
4.0
X/2
8%
13.35
X/X
8%
6.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.95
2/2
6%
10.45
2/X
6%
18.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.95 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-3.5pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.7pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.9pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 18%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +34%
1.79/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.62
+12% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +32%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
433 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.0 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 1.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
435 Passes 274
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2025 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.07.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-1 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin HAZ
21.04.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
19.10.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.04.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.10.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-0
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
2.05 xG 2.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
320 Passes 236
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok nicked a narrow win over Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 55% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 45%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.05 to 2.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.00 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 62%, draw 19%, Zaglebie Lubin 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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