Hillerod 3-1 HB Koge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
7.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.06
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.34
X/2
7%
9.76
X/X
7%
6.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.85
2/2
13%
7.09
2/X
8%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
-0.9pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.5pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY HB Koge EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
2.05/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.67
+16% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 70%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
21.0 Crosses 13.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
4W-2D-0L
AWAY HB Koge
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.52 xG 0.77
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
551 Passes 282
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2025 Hillerod Hillerod 3-0 HT 2-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
13.04.2025 HB Koge HB Koge 0-2 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
02.12.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 1-5 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
16.08.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 4-2 HT 2-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
05.05.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 1-1 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
19.04.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 1-1 HT 0-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
3-1
AWAY HB Koge
2.92 xG 2.66
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
342 Passes 319
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs HB Koge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod saw off HB Koge 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hillerod as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Hillerod had 52% of the ball to HB Koge's 48%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 2.92 to 2.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hillerod had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Hillerod and 0.83 for HB Koge.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs HB Koge?

Hillerod 3-1 HB Koge in the Denmark 1st Division on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs HB Koge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 56%, draw 21%, HB Koge 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hillerod), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hillerod) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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