Stal Mielec 1-2 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Cup, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 34%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
0.00/2.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.92
-100% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +68%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
228 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.81 xG 0.65
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
450 Passes 187
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2025 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 2-3 HT 0-3 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
10.11.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
09.02.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 0-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
07.08.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.06.2020 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL1
01.09.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
1-2
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice squeezed past Stal Mielec 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Puszcza Niepolomice made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 60% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 40%, shots finished 15-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stal Mielec had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stal Mielec and 0.67 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Stal Mielec 1-2 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Cup on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Mielec win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 39%, draw 26%, Puszcza Niepolomice 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stal Mielec), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stal Mielec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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