De Graafschap 4-0 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 24 Jan 2025

📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
8.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.01
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
1/X
6%
11.65
X/1
12%
5.45
X/2
16%
6.99
X/X
16%
5.11
2/1
6%
23.0
2/2
13%
4.46
2/X
5%
12.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
43%
-6.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.9pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
1.38/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.21
-15% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +34%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
25.2 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Emmen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 1.13
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
338 Passes 309
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2024 Emmen Emmen 3-0 HT 2-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
10.05.2024 Emmen Emmen 2-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
31.10.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOK
25.08.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
01.04.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
27.08.2021 Emmen Emmen 0-2 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
4-0
AWAY Emmen
2.74 xG 0.20
56% Ball Possession 44%
29 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 4
341 Passes 259
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
50 Box Touches 4
35 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap cruised past Emmen 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day De Graafschap made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 56% of the ball to Emmen's 44%, shots finished 29-5, expected goals 2.74 to 0.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for De Graafschap and 1.17 for Emmen.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Emmen?

De Graafschap 4-0 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 36%, draw 27%, Emmen 37%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Emmen), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Emmen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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