NEC Nijmegen 2-1 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Jan 2026

📅24/01/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
15%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.61
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.82
2-3 Goals
36%
2.06
4-5 Goals
30%
2.55
6+ Goals
14%
5.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.79
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.65
X/1
18%
4.33
X/2
5%
12.75
X/X
9%
7.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.8
2/2
7%
9.12
2/X
7%
17.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.8 — our 10% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-2.1pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
16%
Away Win
18%
-2.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +7%
2.06/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.13
+21% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
22.9 Crosses 12.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.12
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 Passes 335
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.10.2025 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-2 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
11.01.2025 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.10.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 4-3 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOK
24.08.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
14.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
09.12.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-1
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.39 xG 1.03
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 6
253 Passes 338
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen edged past PEC Zwolle 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 45% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 55%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.39 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.33 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

NEC Nijmegen 2-1 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 61%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
24 Jan 2026
18:30 Ajax vs Volendam Analysis →
22:00 PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda Analysis →
23:00 Twente vs Excelsior Analysis →