Radomiak Radom 2-3 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Radomiak Radom EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.62/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.29
-24% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
24.8 Crosses 22.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Radomiak Radom
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.75 xG 1.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
324 Passes 387
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
02.02.2024 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 2-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Radomiak Radom
2-3
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.72 xG 2.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
376 Passes 242
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin squeezed past Radomiak Radom 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Radomiak Radom at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Radomiak Radom had 59% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 41%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 2.72 to 2.72.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.00 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?

Radomiak Radom 2-3 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Radomiak Radom win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Radomiak Radom 43%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 31%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Radomiak Radom), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Radomiak Radom) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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