Rubin Kazan 4-2 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.46
No
51%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
28%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.06
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 25% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.6
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
15%
4.88
X/2
9%
7.88
X/X
13%
5.56
2/1
10%
21.8
2/2
13%
5.42
2/X
5%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
64%
-15.8pp
51%
BTTS No
36%
+15.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rubin Kazan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
2.15/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.47
+2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
14.4 Crosses 18.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rubin Kazan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 1.49
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
287 Passes 341
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
08.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
30.07.2023 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
15.09.2019 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
03.05.2019 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
05.11.2018 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rubin Kazan
4-2
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.70 xG 1.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
233 Passes 270
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rubin Kazan vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rubin Kazan beat FK Orenburg 4-2. Half-time: 3-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rubin Kazan as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Rubin Kazan had 46% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 54%, shots finished 19-17, expected goals 2.70 to 1.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rubin Kazan and 1.33 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Rubin Kazan vs FK Orenburg?

Rubin Kazan 4-2 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rubin Kazan vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rubin Kazan win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rubin Kazan 45%, draw 24%, FK Orenburg 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rubin Kazan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rubin Kazan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
24 May 2025
16:30 Makhachkala vs Rostov Analysis →
16:30 Fakel vs Krylya Sovetov Analysis →
16:30 Akron vs Lokomotiv Moscow Analysis →
16:30 Spartak Moskova vs Khimki Analysis →
16:30 Zenit St. Petersburg vs FC Akhmat Grozny Analysis →
16:30 Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow Analysis →