Virtus Entella 1-0 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.98
6+ Goals
8%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 32% vs market 29.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.33
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
16%
4.16
X/2
9%
8.89
X/X
10%
4.41
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
10%
7.5
2/X
11%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Virtus Entella EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 24%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
2.27/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.58
-41% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
34.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
34.3 Crosses 14.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Virtus Entella
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.75 xG 1.38
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
241 Passes 365
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2025 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 0-1 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTB
17.05.2025 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-1 HT 0-0 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTC
03.11.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 0-0 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Virtus Entella
1-0
AWAY Padova Calcio
2.38 xG 0.37
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
337 Passes 213
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Virtus Entella vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Virtus Entella edged past Padova Calcio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Virtus Entella as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Virtus Entella had 58% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 42%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.38 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Virtus Entella's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Virtus Entella and 1.33 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Virtus Entella vs Padova Calcio?

Virtus Entella 1-0 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie B on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Virtus Entella vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Virtus Entella win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Virtus Entella 49%, draw 27%, Padova Calcio 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Virtus Entella), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Virtus Entella) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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