Catanzaro 4-2 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.08
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✓
24%
5.1
X/2
10%
6.59
X/X
10%
4.67
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
14%
4.59
2/X
7%
13.0
Value flag · X/1 at 5.1 — our 24% vs market 15.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+4.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.4pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.39/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.52
+25% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
21.0 Crosses 21.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catanzaro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Spezia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.92 xG 1.54
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
370 Passes 239
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2025 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
25.05.2025 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 1-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
21.05.2025 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-2 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
23.02.2025 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
21.12.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-1 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
03.02.2024 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catanzaro
4-2
AWAY Spezia
1.74 xG 2.03
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
349 Passes 153
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Catanzaro vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catanzaro got the better of Spezia 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Catanzaro as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Catanzaro had 64% of the ball to Spezia's 36%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.74 to 2.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Catanzaro and 1.00 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Spezia?

Catanzaro 4-2 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catanzaro vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Catanzaro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Catanzaro 47%, draw 24%, Spezia 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Catanzaro), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Catanzaro) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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