Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
9.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-0.6pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.7pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 22%
-11% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +16%
1.67/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.49
-15% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
26.0 Crosses 16.5
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.32 xG 1.09
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
291 Passes 327
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.02.2026 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
31.08.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
06.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
11.08.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
21.10.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
2.29 xG 0.93
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 5
416 Passes 275
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 17
34 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 59% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 41%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.29 to 0.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sanfrecce Hiroshima's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.67 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 57%, draw 21%, Cerezo Osaka 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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