Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.76
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
9%
6.56
X/2
16%
4.87
X/X
10%
4.59
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
19%
3.02
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 48%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +10%
1.23/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.90
+7% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +31%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
19.6 Crosses 22.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.80 xG 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
330 Passes 310
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
11.08.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
21.10.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
29.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
22.10.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2.09 xG 0.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
253 Passes 255
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 50% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 50%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.09 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.33 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 30%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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