Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.03
No
47%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.59
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.15
6+ Goals
10%
20.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.25
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.35
X/1 EV+ ✓
27%
3.94
X/2
12%
9.12
X/X
13%
4.48
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
6%
7.96
2/X
7%
17.05
Value flag · X/1 at 3.94 — our 27% vs market 20.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
45%
+7.8pp
47%
BTTS No
55%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.80/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.15
-6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +49%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
427 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 71%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.5 Crosses 17.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.06 xG 0.62
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
417 Passes 224
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2025 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
03.11.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
02.06.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-2 HT 0-2 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
22.05.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
23.09.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-3 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
18.06.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2-1
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
3.19 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
372 Passes 309
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol squeezed past Avispa Fukuoka 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kashiwa Reysol as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 54% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 46%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 3.19 to 0.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kashiwa Reysol's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.50 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 49%, draw 27%, Avispa Fukuoka 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
31 Aug 2025
12:30 Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →
13:00 Urawa Red Diamonds vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
13:00 Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo Analysis →
13:00 Kawasaki Frontale vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
13:00 Shonan Bellmare vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →
13:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →