Shonan Bellmare 4-5 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
25%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
19.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.67
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
5%
15.35
X/1
12%
8.01
X/2
17%
4.21
X/X
12%
4.33
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.51
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+5.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.4pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 54%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.13/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.23
-21% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -13%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.7 Crosses 13.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.66 xG 1.83
57% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
434 Passes 308
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 4-0 HT 4-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
21.08.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-2 HT 2-2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JPK
20.07.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
01.06.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
19.08.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
01.04.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 4-1 HT 4-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
4-5
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.22 xG 4.71
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 25
7 Shots on Target 14
5 Corners 9
197 Passes 479
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 36
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka nicked a narrow win over Shonan Bellmare 5-4 away from home. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 32% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 68%, shots finished 10-25, expected goals 1.22 to 4.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gamba Osaka's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 2.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Gamba Osaka?

Shonan Bellmare 4-5 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 30%, draw 24%, Gamba Osaka 46%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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