Cheltenham Town 3-2 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.46
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.34/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.03
+0% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
292 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 71%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
22.4 Crosses 19.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.11 xG 0.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
178 Passes 222
55% Pass Accuracy 61%
16 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2024 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
09.04.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
23.12.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
27.04.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.11.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 1-2 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
11.02.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
3-2
AWAY Carlisle United
2.52 xG 2.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
21 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
159 Passes 224
64% Pass Accuracy 69%
52 Box Touches 29
27 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town edged past Carlisle United 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Cheltenham Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 44% of the ball to Carlisle United's 56%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 2.52 to 2.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cheltenham Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cheltenham Town and 0.50 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United?

Cheltenham Town 3-2 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 32%, draw 28%, Carlisle United 40%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
26 Apr 2025
14:30 Doncaster Rovers vs Bradford City Analysis →
14:30 AFC Wimbledon vs Port Vale Analysis →
15:00 Harrogate Town vs Notts County Analysis →
17:00 Gillingham vs Swindon Town Analysis →
17:00 Tranmere Rovers vs Crewe Alexandra Analysis →
17:00 Walsall vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →